This is just my brief fun but arguably brutal take on how each Straw Hat's life would've shifted if Luffy never showed up.
So in the universe that I am imagining, to make things simple I'm just going to assume and say that Luffy never existed.
Each Straw Hat will have a status accompanying their names in the present story.
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Roronoa Zoro: Our first casualty. If Luffy never showed up to save him in Shells Town, it's likely that he would've ended up being executed by Helmeppo who had double crossed him at the time.
Status: DECEASED
Nami: After having gathered enough money to pay off Arlong who doesn't end up honoring their agreement, the villagers of Cocoyasi would retaliate and likely fall victims to the evil Pirates, including Nojiko and Genzo. Hatchi would not participate in this bloodbath.
Fueled by rage, Nami would likely attempt to kill Arlong herself, but she would stopped by Hatchi who knows that she stands no chance. He would convince her to reconsider by telling her about Jinbe and promising to take her to Fishman Island to get assistance in freeing the remaining still living villagers.
Nami would agree to Hatchi's proposal and the two would escape.
Together, the two would travel to Fishman Island and tell Jinbe who at the time is still a Warlord about the events that transpired back in Cocoyasi. Disgusted and enraged, Jinbe would gladly offer his help to Nami, who would agree on the condition of killing Arlong herself. Reluctant at first, Jinbe would eventually agree to her proposal.
Jinbe would use his connections as a Warlord to make a trip to Cocoyasi. There, they would easily manage to apprehend Arlong's crew, but before handing them over to the marines, Nami would have one final 'friendly' chat with Arlong; she would likely make his last moments as torturous as possible.
The rest of Arlong's crew would either be handed over to the marines or taken to Fishman Island where King Neptune would judge them for their crimes.
Too reminded by the darkness that transpired in her home village, Nami would decide not to stay. Instead, Jinbe would offer to train Nami in Fishman Karate, and she would agree with the thought of one day using her combat skills to protect the village against future threats.
For the next 2 years up until the present timeline, Nami would learn in the ways of Fishman Karate, and potentially develop new methods of fighting such as use of the Clima-Tact.
Status: ALIVE
Usopp: Hearing of Kuro’s attempt to kill Kaya and steal her inheritance, Usopp would make a stand against his men and without the aid of the Straw Hat Pirates would likely die in the process. Kuro would successfully kill Kaya and live out the rest of his days in the Syrup Village mansion.
Yasopp hearing of this tragedy would retaliate along with the rest of the Red Haired Pirates, likely taking out Kuro and his crew.
STATUS: DECEASED
Vinsmoke Sanji: I’d like to believe that the Baratie would either win or give in to the demands of the Krieg Pirates. So, Sanji would spend the rest of his days working at the restaurant.
The Germa Six would never learn of Sanji’s whereabouts and would thus be unable to find him and marry him off to Charlotte Pudding.
STATUS: ALIVE
Tony Tony Chopper: I don’t think that Wapol was as strong as he was made out to be, so either Chopper, Kureha or Dalton would have taken him out.
Chopper would continue to study under Kureha and wouldn’t really be motivated to go out to sea and explore the world.
STATUS: ALIVE
Nico Robin: This one’s probably going to sound really dark and tragic. After lying to Crocodile about Pluton’s location, she would be beaten down and left to die underground like in the original timeline. With no desire to live, she’d let herself be buried by rubble.
The world government would never learn of her status and Crocodile would continue to rule over Alabasta.
STATUS: DECEASED
Franky: With the world government having figured out Franky’s possession of the blue-prints, they’d likely take him in and interrogate him for the information.
I see two scenarios going along with this:
1) The world government would threaten Franky’s family and friends and force Franky into handing over the blueprints.
2) Franky burns the blueprints like he did in the original timeline.
Either way, Spandam would order Franky’s execution to erase the knowledge of the existence of the blueprints.
STATUS: DECEASED
Brook: His vessel would eventually cross paths with the Thriller Bark ship. Brook would attack Moria in an attempt to get his shadow back only to die again in the process.
STATUS: DECEASED
Jinbe: After aiding Nami in saving Cocoyasi village and training her for a while, Jinbe would eventually be called to answer the call to Marineford in a stand against the Whitebeard Pirates during the execution of Ace.
Like in the original timeline, Jinbe would refuse and be incarcerated in Impel Down.
Following Ace’s execution, Jinbe would be stripped of his Warlord title.
Since Fishman Island is no longer under the Warlord’s / Whitebeard’s protection, Jinbe would agree to stay in Impel Down under the condition of the island’s preservation.
STATUS: ALIVE
BONUS:
Nefertari Vivi: With Crocodile’s continuing rule over Alabasta, Vivi would flee the country in an attempt to find allies elsewhere.
Whether she’d eventually be successful is hard to say, but I don’t see her dying in this weird alternate world.
Eventually she might meet and befriend Nami who would understand her struggles of living under Tyranny, and would find allies in the inhabitants of Fishmen Island.
STATUS: ALIVE
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So that’s my take on how this alternate series of events would unfold. Feel free to share your opinions down bellow.
